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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."